Brent crude close to $100 a barrel after fall in US stocks and increase demand from China

30% jump in prices beckoning Saudi Arabia to ramp up supply.

Following a nearly 30% jump in prices this quarter to their highest in a year, analysts are waiting to see whether top producer Saudi Arabia might look to ramp up supply.

A ministerial panel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, is due to meet on Oct. 4. "Next week's OPEC meeting will be a key update for the market with increasing probability the voluntary supply cuts by Aramco are reduced," said National Australia Bank analysts in a client note.

Improving macroeconomic data from China, the world's largest oil importer, coupled with strong fuel demand as the country as it embarked on its week-long Golden Week holiday on Friday, limited price declines.

"(An) increase in international travel during the Golden Week holiday is boosting Chinese oil demand," ANZ analysts said in a client note.

Domestic travel is also expected to boost demand, with data from flight app Umetrip showing the average number of daily flights booked is a fifth higher than for Golden Week in 2019, before COVID.

China's factory activity likely steadied in September, a Reuters poll showed, adding to a run of indicators suggesting the world's second-largest economy has begun to stabilise which could bolster demand further. Official data is due on Saturday.

The U.S. economy maintained a fairly solid pace of growth in the second quarter and activity appears to have accelerated this quarter, data showed on Thursday, pointing to possible healthy fuel demand.

A backdrop of tight supplies in the U.S. provided further price support, with storage at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S. crude futures, already at their lowest since July 2022.

"U.S. oil production is set to slow as well due to falling rig counts. Lower supply and record global demand of 103mb/d could push the market into a deficit of more than 2mb/d in the last quarter."

Fuel card users can expect a small increase of .18 pence per litre as we head into the first week of October.


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